Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 2.113330 2.224186 2.343102 2.481161 2.638381 2.813554 3.026005
2025-08-17 1.985956 2.124264 2.278272 2.464956 2.688771 2.953662 3.299613
2025-08-24 1.899715 2.054288 2.230869 2.451591 2.726540 3.067760 3.542046
2025-08-31 1.834643 2.000592 2.193979 2.441723 2.760274 3.172165 3.778378
2025-09-07 1.794379 1.971641 2.182029 2.457868 2.823642 3.316641 4.088104
2025-09-14 1.718152 1.894556 2.105723 2.385649 2.762440 3.280956 4.118836
2025-09-21 1.680736 1.862500 2.082729 2.379303 2.787307 3.366487 4.350303
2025-09-28 1.633265 1.815680 2.038437 2.341534 2.764635 3.378165 4.458149
2025-10-05 1.625486 1.817477 2.055289 2.385107 2.858315 3.573409 4.927187
2025-10-12 1.626143 1.829399 2.085041 2.447078 2.982813 3.832612 5.597285
2025-10-19 1.598956 1.804504 2.065086 2.438205 2.999609 3.914563 5.922771
2025-10-26 1.578021 1.786791 2.053679 2.440341 3.032720 4.027709 6.359038
2025-11-02 1.532950 1.737588 1.999895 2.381360 2.969220 3.966543 6.356754
2025-11-09 1.506805 1.712238 1.977243 2.366139 2.974030 4.031012 6.714708
2025-11-16 1.483303 1.689567 1.957269 2.353576 2.981734 4.101205 7.122928
2025-11-23 1.462373 1.669620 1.940206 2.344263 2.993695 4.180678 7.605479
2025-11-30 1.451015 1.661874 1.939411 2.358779 3.045999 4.348230 8.514686
2025-12-07 1.412776 1.617425 1.886510 2.292486 2.956086 4.207579 8.155048
2025-12-14 1.396476 1.601977 1.873583 2.286504 2.970052 4.290691 8.777676
2025-12-21 1.371299 1.574096 1.842569 2.251722 2.931794 4.256122 8.871687
2025-12-28 1.371702 1.580543 1.859750 2.291561 3.027386 4.533079 10.792399
2026-01-04 1.377158 1.593852 1.886913 2.348150 3.158380 4.925552 14.687535
2026-01-11 1.362490 1.579304 1.873713 2.339951 3.168009 5.017952 16.681715